Resolution

If Russia detonates a nuclear weapon in 2022, resolves YES if their first nuclear detonation is non-offensive, NO if it is offensive. Resolves N/A if Russia does not detonate a nuclear weapon in 2022.

Details

• Offensively means neither detonations for testing purposes nor peaceful nuclear explosions will count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage.

  • I will use Metaculus decisions on https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2797/no-non-test-nuclear-detonations-by-2024-01-01/ and related questions to determine whether a nuclear weapon detonation counts as offensive.

• The detonation does not need to be deliberate to count towards question resolution - an inadvertent, accidental, or unauthorized detonation can count.

Related

This question is paired with:

See https://manifold.markets/post/nuclear-risk-forecasting for a dashboard of other nuclear risk questions along with commentary and analysis.