This question aims to forecast the likelihood of escalation from a Russian nuclear test or demonstration detonation to an offensive detonation.

If Russia detonates a nuclear weapon non-offensively in 2022 and their first nuclear detonation is non-offensive, then resolves as follows:

If this condition does not take place, resolves N/A. (Note that if the first Russian detonation is offensive, that resolves N/A.)

https://manifold.markets/post/nuclear-risk-forecasting

 for a dashboard of other nuclear risk questions along with commentary and analysis