This question aims to forecast the likelihood of escalation from a Russian nuclear test or demonstration detonation to an offensive detonation.

Resolution

If Russia detonates a nuclear weapon non-offensively in 2022 and their first nuclear detonation is non-offensive, then resolves as follows:

• Resolves YES if within one month of the first (non-offensive) detonation, Russia detonates a nuclear weapon offensively. Resolves NO after 1 month.

If this condition does not take place, resolves N/A. (Note that if the first Russian detonation is offensive, that resolves N/A.)

Details

• Offensively means neither detonations for testing purposes nor peaceful nuclear explosions will count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage.

  • I will use Metaculus decisions on https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2797/no-non-test-nuclear-detonations-by-2024-01-01/ and related questions to determine whether a nuclear weapon detonation counts as offensive.

• The detonation does not need to be deliberate to count towards question resolution - an inadvertent, accidental, or unauthorized detonation can count.

Related

This question is paired with:

See https://manifold.markets/post/nuclear-risk-forecasting for a dashboard of other nuclear risk questions along with commentary and analysis