will eliezer yudkowsky pour an entire bottle of ketchup onto his head on the live internet before 2030?

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2030

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ALL

i think this is how manifold market works? someone who knows better plz halp

https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1699585394751545652

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Could potentially be a very small bottle onto his tongue or something.

@adele but, like... the base rates for that are pretty low? I guess the existence of this market pushes the odds up, but... still seems overpriced to me.

predictedNO

Buying YES not for this specific offer but for the possibility that the ketchup tweet gets popular enough he starts making the promise for other things too.

manifesting this

My reasoning strongly depends on how hard it is to empty an entire bottle of ketchup with no remainder

@HollyElmore You could potentially design some sort of hydraulic press system that presses ketchup bottles. Might be easier specifically with a squirt bottle too.

However, would a machine doing it still count? What if it were directly under Yuds control?