Will Robin Hanson create a market on Manifold by the end of 2023?
82
1.3kṀ26k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if confirmed that Robin Hanson created a market on Manifold by end of the 2023.

related:


Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm

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Robin Hanson
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predictedNO

What is this banner?

Is that what some image model thinks that Robin Hanson looks like?

predictedNO

@EliTyre This is Robin Hanson. It's a holiday picture of his visit at Mount Etna last year.

predictedYES

https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-robin-hanson-create-a-market-o-4db6eb3745dd

Will Robin Hanson create a market on Manifold by the end of 2024?
50% chance. Resolves YES if confirmed that Robin Hanson created a market on Manifold by end of the 2024. related: [markets] Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm

This market is at 50% while the Nate Silver market is at 80%. That feels wrong to me. Both are on the manifest guest list and prediction markets feel more tied to Hanson's specific niche.

predictedYES

@BoltonBailey good point

Isn't he coming to Manifest?

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