Will Manifold hit 2,000 active users daily (7d average) in 2022?
Will Manifold hit 2,000 active users daily (7d average) in 2022?
17
350Ṁ4534
resolved Nov 14
Resolved
YES

via https://manifold.markets/stats, Daily 7d average

here is the market for 5,000 users:


Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

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predictedYES 2y

You need to forgive me.

or let's hope there will still be 2,000 reached in 2022

predictedNO 2y

@kolotom99 The daily users are dropping off, so 7 day average could be next. If it looks like it's dropping after a couple days, we should go to Manifold mods to get it reversed. The report thing doesnt seem to do anything, other than get someone banned if they're reported enough

predictedYES 2y

@PhillipConstantine Yes, current trend is downward. Let's wait till eoy.

In the meantime:

2y

I'm sorry, resolved by mistake. Flagged myself.

2y

The Destiny Wave makes this a lot more likely than previously - 5000 still feels like a stretch though

Only a month and a half left, and there is unlikely to be any event bigger than the US midterms to bring people in. But the momentum is there, so 30% seems right.

predictedNO 2y

@PhillipConstantine The big event driving recent growth seems to have been Destiny, not the midterms, but I'm unsure of how much more will come with that.

Will Manifold hit 2,000 active users daily (7d average) in 2022?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.

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