MANIFOLD
Manifold's favorite Manifest 2025 session?
23
Ṁ1.7kṀ8k
resolved Nov 30
100%1.5%
History Lecture with Live Betting (Sovereign), by Michael Wheatley
0.5%
Manifold power user meetup
0.4%
David Shor & Jesse Richardson Q&A
1.1%
Weirdly priced markets with Jesse Richardson & Eric Neyman
0.4%
Election betting debates of 2024: a retrospective
0.4%
David Shor: data science & politics (with two substitute Davids filling in)
0.5%
Startup pitch competition
0.6%
Nash Pit: A Prediction Market Game Show
0.4%
Doom Debates: Liron vs. Everyone
0.5%
Big Manifold Awards Ceremony, by Ian Philips
84%
Scott Alexander: Forecasting Transformative AI Using The Book Of Revelation
0.4%
cremieux on autism
1.3%
Metadao
3%
Allison Duettmann- Decentralized AI
1.1%
Poker Tournament
1.6%
Joe carlsmith model welfare talk
2%Other
  • Resolves to a poll, created after market close, with the listed options (excluding "other") ranked in order by their final probability.

  • The poll will run for one week, and ties resolve proportionally.

  • Add your own options—they should be listed as a session on the Manifest schedule (i.e. not just "a fun thing that happened"), although you can tweak the official title to make it more clear if you'd like.

  • Update 2025-11-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The poll was not created at the originally intended time. The creator will create the poll (which will determine resolution) at a later date.

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@Ziddletwix resolves to Michael’s (awesome!) session.

My apologies for not posting the poll earlier, I guess this tests what survived the test of time

@Ziddletwix was this poll created?

@calour it wasn't, my bad, will create

@Ziddletwix Was this recorded? Now I want to see it, lol.

bought Ṁ500 YES

@Ziddletwix I'll bet more around 60% if you are interested

wait scratch that, 50% (edit: 55% limit order now for 1 hour)

opened a Ṁ2,000 YES at 60% order

now 60%?!?!

See results.

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