if any nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2023. Otherwise 

https://manifold.markets/post/nuclear-risk-forecasting

 for a dashboard of other nuclear risk questions along with commentary and analysis.

Edited title to help readers more easily distinguish it (nothing about the resolution criteria changed, it was already explicily stated): 

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022?

 → Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022? (tests included)