This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.
Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.
Recently he made many predictions on American politics events, published on
https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023:
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Here are my calculations, D overperformance of 2.6%
resolves YES. you can calculate it here if you really want https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2021/9/29/2055001/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-new-and-old-districts
resolve YES, no more House specials this year
VA-04 is D+13.3, RI-01 is D+0.9, UT-02 is about R+7 for an overall D overperformance
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11ZlsgliiaOa92s9PkoSW244QbfxWZbw8cIW4TF_TTKU