Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?
➕
Plus
25
Ṁ4844
2026
15%
chance

Resolves after NYT calls both races. FYI if it's 50-50 I'll resolve NO

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
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bought Ṁ150 NO

For competitive seats the democrats will be defending Michigan and Georgia (Ossoff) and the republicans will only be defending Maine. With the democrats likely only having 47 senate seats after 2024 election it's hard to see why this shouldn't be lower. Especially because the democrats need 51 seats in 2026 since Trump will be in office.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections#Georgia

@DanielBets Joni Ernst won by 6 points in 2020, Thom Tillis is retiring in competitive NC, Vivek might make Ohio competitive, Beto came within 2 points of beating Ted Cruz in 2018, Alaska is a ~10% shot for Dems etc That is 6 plausible seats (not likely, but still). In the right environment there are no non-competitive seats

@DanielBets midterms are usually bad for the incumbent party

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