🏅 Top traders

Is it official now?

@itsTomekK No new progress since 5/13

@itsTomekK it's official

non-negligible chance he takes it back by year end?

/StrayClimb/after-the-announcement-of-who-she-i

/StrayClimb/after-the-announcement-of-who-she-i-6111c23c8a37

/johnleoks/will-linda-yaccarino-step-down-as-t

/johnleoks/will-linda-yacc-still-be-the-ceo-of

/johnleoks/will-linda-yaccarino-step-down-as-t-02c82b450687

/johnleoks/will-linda-yaccarino-still-be-the-c

@itsTomekK is this evaluated at close (end of the year) or at any time during the year?

@deagol Any time during the year

Too high still given that the single related markets are at 31%, 75%, and 86%. It implies only a 20% chance of all three resolving yes.

@copacetic ? this market is for at least one, 20% is the implied probability of him keeping all three jobs, so this market should be at 80% under that logic. But that assumes that the probabilities are independent, it is more likely that he keeps at the other two jobs if he quits one of them (has more time to keep the other two). At least this market should be higher than 69% which is currently the probability that he stops being CEO of Twitter

@egroj You are right. I’m too tired 🤣