After the announcement of who she is, will the twitter CEO be in the job for at least a month?
11
66
230
resolved Jul 11
Resolved
YES

i.e. after official announcement of the name, she starts and stays at least 30 days

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predicted YES

Ran this test vs Claude:

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

@StrayClimb Haha great. Can you copy and paste your prompt here? I wanna test it against a bunch of LLMs

predicted YES

@firstuserhere

Here is a prediction market: After the announcement of who she is, will the twitter CEO be in the job for at least a month? i.e. after official announcement of the name, she starts and stays at least 30 days.

Here is what happened:

May 12: The name of the new CEO to be is announced
June 5th: The new CEO begins work.

Questions:

  • when should the market be resolved, and under what conditions?

predicted YES

@StrayClimb Haha GPT-4 agrees with claude, whereas GPT-3.5 is in a rush to resolve this!

predicted YES

@firstuserhere It's kind of interesting deferring to LLMs for this kind of grammar/interpretability thing. Even if it's not an absolute ruling, it seems like the LLM is valuable for filling in the basic assumptions. i.e. imagine if a super intense salesman is trying to argue you out of a very obviously correct statement. Having the LLM chime in "actually the basic question isn't wrong" would be quite useful.

predicted YES

@StrayClimb please resolve?

predicted YES

@firstuserhere She started as CEO on June 5th, right? So I was going to count from then. The description makes it clear that the steps are 1) announcement 2) start 3) 30 days pass

predicted YES

@StrayClimb I see. I interpreted it by the line "i.e. after official announcement of the name" -> the 2nd half of the sentence can be understood (as by me) as : she has definitely started after the announcement of the name

it wasn't just an announcement of name -> change of plans. She started.

predicted YES

@firstuserhere yes, I'm sorry that's a bit unclear. I'm counting from June 5th since she was not "in the job" until then.

predicted YES

@StrayClimb Thanks for clarifying, it's alright! Thankfully no one else has bet after me, so i'm able to withdraw 4500 Mana out at a profit!

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

Quoting Wikipedia:

"Yaccarino resigned from NBCUniversal on May 12, 2023,[16] and on the same day Elon Musk announced that Yaccarino would be the new chief executive officer of X Corp. and Twitter."

should resolve YES now