How does this market resolve if it's shown that slowing the aging rate of researchers in general increases their productivity?

Why is this specifically about AI researchers rather than any other profession?

Freezing AI researchers halts their aging rate but does not increase their net productivity. Therefore, halting aging does not necessarily improve productivity.

if you mean specifically measures of AI research output, which does not seem particularly measurable, this just seems like a 'will a bad study appearing to show X be published'. stastical signifiance isn't that hard if your study is bad, and there's way more ways to mess up a study than to not

"conslusively" and "by any statistically significant amount even if small" seem contradictory here