Basic
68
4.9k
2100
31%
chance

through implementation of future longevity / life extension technologies + therapies.

Get Ṁ600 play money
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@GriffinBrumley you'll (presumably) want to extend the close date of this market, it's currently set to close at end of 2023.

The maximum human lifespan had not increased since middle ages. The mean did thanks to the development in medicine, but not the max. Perhaps the cause of aging and thus death is inherently systemic and will thus be capped until humanity understands the body completely and could replace failing organs on-demand.

I don't think you even need a prediction market for that. Your answer is already in the distribution per your economic group/genetics and you'll already have a perfectly calibrated prediction

A person's life span is determined by several factors, among them social and economic context, country, city, descendants, etc. However, to expect any of us to live to 120 or even over 100 years is quite complex. For example, the American Health Association estimates that with current technology and the average life expectancy of citizens, the average life expectancy is 74 years (CDC, 2022). Considering this data as a national average, we are talking about 120 years, which is more or less a standard deviation difference. Moreover, if we perform a statistical calculation (Z test), we can see that the probability of a person reaching 120 is 4.5x10^-38, and that of calling 100 is 2.8x10^27.

Sources:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/drug-overdose-data.htm.

https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy.

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I may reach 80 years old.

The current life expectancy for a male is 73.5 y/o according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. After researching the life expectancy of all the states of America, a Z-test was performed to the data using the value of 120 y/o, following the nature of the data (because there are more than 156 data points, as well as the fact that the distribution of the means tends to be a normal distribution), which returned that the possibility of a life expectancy of 120 y/o is less than 1% (3.47 x 10^-47).

In case you make it, if you have 32 y/o (read it in another comment) you will turn 120 in 2111. Technology will advance greatly, as you get older, your body will carry all the illnesses, bacteria and environmental conditions of the current time. My take is that the future technologies will focus to improve life conditions from newborn ages, which will extend their lives considerably. And all that without mentioning your current lifestyle, health indicators and family history, which all ultimately affect life expectancy.

 

Sources:

Life Expectancy: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/life-expectancy.htm

Dataset: https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/u-s-state-life-expectancy-by-sex-2020-8834e

Hopefully we get a hold of the technology or health plan as you.... Please share 🙏🤔😂

How does this resolve? You either live to 120 and resolve it yourself - of you die and??

Gotta put your manifold login in your will

@Issc Moderators and those with the trustworthyish tag can resolve any market.

@GarrettBaker But how do they know if OP is alive or dead?

Starting an assassination market against yourself is pretty bold.

@cherrvak i also have an assasination market, but i don't have to deal with it for hundreds of years

@BanhMiChuoi but marketvcloses at jan 1

How old are you now?