NOTE: Please read the comments, as some traders have been banned and their votes will not be counted.
This market is for the Elite 8 of Manifold's G.O.A.T. tournament, to determine who advances to the Final Four. The purpose of this series of markets is to determine who Manifold thinks is the "Greatest of All Time" (G.O.A.T.).
Resolution Criteria:
Each market will be determined by the greater number of individual holders of either YES or NO at market close. For example, if the market is Winston Churchill (NO) v Pierre-Simon Laplace (YES), Winston Churchill will win if there are 8 individual NO holders, and 7 individual YES holders at the time of market close.
Bot trades do not count towards determining winners.
I will settle any ties, and am happy to offer my opinion on any matchups before the market closes. I am also willing to consider any arguments for/against a contestant before making my decision.
Most markets will run from Sunday-Saturday. The Final Four and Championship will run over Summer Camp and Manifest.
The scheduled close date for each market of the contest is at 11:59PM CST on the below dates:
Elite 8 - June 1st
Final Four - June 7th
Championship - June 9th
You can also bet on who will be the overall winner of the G.O.A.T. tournament:
/houstonEuler/who-will-win-the-manifold-goat-tour
Nominations and previous rounds:
/houstonEuler/-who-is-manifolds-goat-sweet-16-pla
/houstonEuler/-who-is-manifolds-goat-round-of-32
/houstonEuler/who-is-manifolds-goat-round-of-64-p
/houstonEuler/which-16-philosophy-and-religion-ca
/houstonEuler/which-16-business-and-culture-candi
/houstonEuler/which-16-politics-and-governancecan
/houstonEuler/which-16-science-and-technology-can
@traders Update on the alts: Moderators have banned seven alt accounts of one of the users trading on this market. I'm sorry I didn't catch this earlier, and would like thank For Truth for bringing it to my attention.
Six of these alts were betting on Norman Borlaug, and their votes will not be counted in the final tally or on any other markets on which they bet.
Please trade accordingly.
@houstonEuler Iβm somewhat grateful for this debacle, because it introduced me to how absolutely awesome Norman Borlaug is.
Borlaug does seem like a great guy, but Newton did a lot too. Both of their work probably would've eventually been done by someone else, but personally I think Newton sped up the timeline on human advancement more.
Newton:
Discovered the composition of white light
Discovered three laws of motion
Discovered the law of universal gravitation
First discovered infinitesimal calculus
Any one of those would be enough to get his name in science textbooks. All four, and I think he beats out Borlaug for GOAT.
https://www.britannica.com/biography/Isaac-Newton/International-prominence
@mongo "First"
Depends on how narrowly you define stuff β I'd argue Archimedes was doing calculus 2000ish years earlier
@Bayesian You forgot that Newton invented a successful brand of fig cookie.
People keep saying Borlaug fed the world but weβve been growing grain for millennia. Thatβs not true invention
@traders As one of the other commentators pointed out, it appears that someone has been using alt accounts to swing the votes.
I've asked moderators for confirmation, but unless there's clear evidence and an explanation for their suspicious behavior, I'll will be disqualifying their votes when calculating the final tallies.
Please bet accordingly.
@JoeandSeth I can't even imagine what modern physics or engineering would be like without Newton.
Borlaug simply sped up the timeline. Heck, without Newton popularizing a basic understanding of physics and gravity, he probably would've never had the idea to change wheat in the way he did to increase yields in the first place.
I think the alt accounts here might have gotten out of hand. Adam Smith and Norman Borlaug had suspicious trades last round, and it looks like we might be seeing a repeat with Norman again. Three separate low-activity traders trading in agreement within one minute seems unlikely.
Unless of course there's a whole Clark family and friends with little interest in other markets who formed a voting bloc. I guess that's not ruled out by the market description. Really nice of Darius and Steven to give all their mana to Stephen a few months ago too.