🐐 Who is Manifold's G.O.A.T.? 🐐 (Elite 8)
resolved Jun 2
Confucius (NO) v Charles Darwin (YES)
Isaac Newton (NO) v Norman Borlaug (YES)
Albert Einstein (NO) v Mohandas K Gandhi (YES)
Adam Smith (NO) v Jesus (YES)

NOTE: Please read the comments, as some traders have been banned and their votes will not be counted.

This market is for the Elite 8 of Manifold's G.O.A.T. tournament, to determine who advances to the Final Four. The purpose of this series of markets is to determine who Manifold thinks is the "Greatest of All Time" (G.O.A.T.).

Resolution Criteria:

Each market will be determined by the greater number of individual holders of either YES or NO at market close. For example, if the market is Winston Churchill (NO) v Pierre-Simon Laplace (YES), Winston Churchill will win if there are 8 individual NO holders, and 7 individual YES holders at the time of market close.

Bot trades do not count towards determining winners.

I will settle any ties, and am happy to offer my opinion on any matchups before the market closes. I am also willing to consider any arguments for/against a contestant before making my decision.

Most markets will run from Sunday-Saturday. The Final Four and Championship will run over Summer Camp and Manifest.

The scheduled close date for each market of the contest is at 11:59PM CST on the below dates:

Elite 8 - June 1st

Final Four - June 7th
Championship - June 9th

You can also bet on who will be the overall winner of the G.O.A.T. tournament:


Nominations and previous rounds:

Get αΉ€600 play money

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@traders Update on the alts: Moderators have banned seven alt accounts of one of the users trading on this market. I'm sorry I didn't catch this earlier, and would like thank For Truth for bringing it to my attention.

Six of these alts were betting on Norman Borlaug, and their votes will not be counted in the final tally or on any other markets on which they bet.

Please trade accordingly.

bought αΉ€15 Isaac Newton (NO) v ... NO

@houstonEuler SAD! Loser grainboi cucks in shambles. Newton GigaUnits stay winning

Dropped like an apple

@houstonEuler I’m somewhat grateful for this debacle, because it introduced me to how absolutely awesome Norman Borlaug is.

Borlaug does seem like a great guy, but Newton did a lot too. Both of their work probably would've eventually been done by someone else, but personally I think Newton sped up the timeline on human advancement more.


  • Discovered the composition of white light

  • Discovered three laws of motion

  • Discovered the law of universal gravitation

  • First discovered infinitesimal calculus

Any one of those would be enough to get his name in science textbooks. All four, and I think he beats out Borlaug for GOAT.


Newton also calculated 16 digits of Ο€ by hand way back in 1666. Does a non-GOAT do that? Unlikely.

@mongo then why did you vote for Borlaug? Newton is NO, you bought YES.

bought αΉ€5 Isaac Newton (NO) v ... NO

@Bair Oops, corrected, thank you

bought αΉ€119 Confucius (NO) v Cha... YES

@mongo Newton also was famously proud to be a virgin. Pro/Con?

@mongo "First"

Depends on how narrowly you define stuff β€” I'd argue Archimedes was doing calculus 2000ish years earlier

Pro newton:


Universal Law of Gravitation

Laws of Motion


The Giant of Modern Science (science goat?)

Pro borlaug:

goated wheat

Green revolution (Revolutions are cool)

Saved a bunch of lives or whatevs’

Conclusion: 5 v 3.

Winner: Isaac Newton

@Bayesian You forgot that Newton invented a successful brand of fig cookie.

People keep saying Borlaug fed the world but we’ve been growing grain for millennia. That’s not true invention

Breaking news! Investigative journalist ziddletwix reveals Fraud Borlaug (Borfraud!) stole 300 year old idea from Newton of creating new foods, in mad dash of hubris towards undeserved GOAT status

Isaac Newton (NO) v Norman Borlaug (YES)
bought αΉ€250 Isaac Newton (NO) v ... YES

OK, I’m not the smartest guy in the world and didn’t know who Norman Borlaug was. I looked him up, and holy cow – absolutely putting my money in for him.

@traders As one of the other commentators pointed out, it appears that someone has been using alt accounts to swing the votes.

I've asked moderators for confirmation, but unless there's clear evidence and an explanation for their suspicious behavior, I'll will be disqualifying their votes when calculating the final tallies.

Please bet accordingly.

If you like not starving to death and you're not on the borlaug train someone tell me why

Leibniz exists, Newton is overrated

The Johnny Football of calculus

bought αΉ€0 Confucius (NO) v Cha... YES

@JoeandSeth calculus is not the only notable thing Newton did

Borlaug built this world on the backs of billions

Hooke gave Newton gravity

@JoeandSeth I can't even imagine what modern physics or engineering would be like without Newton.

Borlaug simply sped up the timeline. Heck, without Newton popularizing a basic understanding of physics and gravity, he probably would've never had the idea to change wheat in the way he did to increase yields in the first place.

I think the alt accounts here might have gotten out of hand. Adam Smith and Norman Borlaug had suspicious trades last round, and it looks like we might be seeing a repeat with Norman again. Three separate low-activity traders trading in agreement within one minute seems unlikely.

Unless of course there's a whole Clark family and friends with little interest in other markets who formed a voting bloc. I guess that's not ruled out by the market description. Really nice of Darius and Steven to give all their mana to Stephen a few months ago too.