Will @n99m rejoin our groupchat by the end of august?
Will @n99m rejoin our groupchat by the end of august?
59
1.1kṀ180k
resolved Aug 6
Resolved
N/A

@n99m left a group chat I am in because a certain member ( @levifinkelstein ) sent too many videos of a guy called frank hassle (at least that was the instigating event). Will he rejoin the groupchat by the end of august (see close date)?

Resolves to yes if at any time he ( @n99m ) rejoins our group chat before august 31 is over.

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1y

N/A'ing this market as it was only created to defraud users.

predictedYES 1y

@DavidChee noooo my realized profit

1y

Note that @levifinkelstein is temporarily banned from commenting and if you want clarifications, or have questions, please contact him on discord.

1y

Others have pointed it out already but it bears repeating to save some newbies from wasting their mana:

@hmys has invested 70% of his total net worth in NO-position. @levifinkelstein invested 50% of their net worth in NO-positions. No way they would be this confident in a NO-resolution, if there wasn't some secret information they are hiding. This market is bait.

predictedNO

@Agh It's not bait, and it's not secret. He can't join the server if we don't invite him. I've expressed surprise many times in this market's comment section at people buying YES in this market.

predictedNO 1y

@Agh Did you read the comments?

predictedNO 1y

@Agh

Please stop spreading misinformation

@n99m i certainly hope you do

predictedNO 1y

@BTE come on man, put in some more mana

predictedNO 1y

@BTE stop wasting your mana in other markets

predictedNO 1y

@n99m buy more. i have limit orders

predictedYES 1y

@hmys sus

1y

let's just say theres an x% chance of n99m rejoining the group chat. Then there's a 100-x% chance of n99m not rejoining the group chat. Then the probability is x% yes + (100-x)% no (real math). And (100-x)% no is the same thing as x% yes, so in reality the probability of n99m joining the group chat is x% yes + x% yes = (2x)%. Applying this same logic, the market is going to resolve to a number > -15.

predictedYES 1y

It’s time for a “Is @n99m and @hmys the same person” market.

predictedYES 1y

Can I make a market about someone calling me and then block their number and smash my phone?

Can I make a market about someone visiting me and then burn my house down and leave the country?

If I create a market about my personal life is it ok for me to at any moment change the purpose of the market if it can benefit me?

When you make a market where you have 100% control of the resolution are you not expected to act in good faith?

When I first bet on this market I did it because it seemed incredibly dumb of them to go this hard when all it should take according to the spirit of the market (per the creators own words) is @n99m knowing about it and wanting free mana.

After @n99m started betting YES I can't think of a likely scenario where this market is not deceitful in general and also tricked everyone who initially bet on it at face value. You're either all colluding or you're not letting him/going to let him join.

Maybe I'm wrong and it's actually fine to transform your market in to a tool for league boosting and then cry about people trolling you when they bet in a way that messes that up for you.

predictedNO

@UFTG This is not the first time this has happened with HMYS and Levi.

predictedNO 1y

@UFTG "Can I make a market about someone calling me and then block their number and smash my phone?

Can I make a market about someone visiting me and then burn my house down and leave the country?"

Yes.

predictedYES 1y

@UFTG Why don’t you sell your shares so I can buy cheaper no’s?

predictedNO 1y

Time to invite him @n99m finally? 🤔 There are some nice limit orders up....

I'm not touching this market with a 10 foot pole

predictedNO 1y

@MarcusAbramovitch you just need high enough IQ to predict the resolution

unfortunately mine is quite low

predictedNO 1y

@BTE come on, put in some more mana bro. Can't you just sell out on some other markets?

predictedYES 1y

@levifinkelstein I am so intrigued now I want to join the server.

predictedYES 1y

@levifinkelstein How do I get an invite?

predictedNO 1y

@BTE someone has to give you one

predictedYES 1y

@levifinkelstein Thanks Capt Obvious!

predictedYES 1y

@levifinkelstein How do we know the server is even active if only you are on it?

predictedYES 1y

@levifinkelstein If it isn’t even active, making it impossible for n99m to rejoin, that is market manipulation and should have serious consequences. I think there should be proof it’s active.

predictedNO 1y

@BTE I use it basically every day, don't worry. Although I don't really see how that's relevant. Pretty sure it wouldn't be market manipulation in any interesting sense if the server wasn't being used.

predictedYES 1y

@levifinkelstein Interesting that you call it a server! This market is about a “group chat”

🤨🤨🤨

predictedNO 1y

@Gen yeah, it's technically a discord server. Regardless there's logs of the Frank Hassle ordeal taking place, with him leaving right after, all matching up with the timeline of this market.

predictedYES 1y

@levifinkelstein invite n99m to prove it (he is my chosen representative)

predictedYES 1y

@levifinkelstein That is irrelevant. You should invite @Gen and he can verify it’s legit.

predictedNO 1y

@BTE Verify that what is legit? I don't understand exactly what your worry is, do you mind explaining a little bit more?

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