[Manifold Plays Chess 3] If we play 3. Nc3, what is the score after move 4?
[Manifold Plays Chess 3] If we play 3. Nc3, what is the score after move 4?
10
210Ṁ1719
resolved Mar 14
Resolved as
71%

Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP.

The game so far: 1.e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6

The other candidate move is 3. d3.

The conditional market for the other move is here:


If the value (averaged over the last 4 hours before close) of this market is higher than in the other market, then this market resolves PROB to the score after move 4. Otherwise, it resolves N/A. The score after move 4 is the value (averaged over the last 4 hours) of the conditional market of the winning move in move 4.

Note that when the game ends, the score will be 1.0 - #moves x 0.0004 if white wins, 0.5 - #moves x 0.0002 if its a draw, or 0.0 if we lose.

More details for the overall game here:

https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch

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predictedNO 2y

Resolves to score after move 4: 0.709159
Since I cannot enter precise percentages, I will round probabilistically by using an RNG at home: resolves to 71%.
(if anyone prefers that I use FairlyRandom, let me know)

predictedNO 2y

d3: Average probability: 0.388582

Nc3: Average probability: 0.510000

Nc3 wins.

2y

Related futures:

What’s the score after move 5? [oracle for Manifold Plays Chess 3]67%‌

What’s the score after move 7? [oracle for Manifold Plays Chess 3]31%‌

What’s the score after move 10? [oracle for Manifold Plays Chess 3]65%‌

2y

I sure hope @jack read the instructions this time. ;)

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