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Do we know what the agreement actually is? Why the timeframe is so short?

@Berg Yes, and focused primarily on the order to stand down. Short timeframe was enough to see if Wagner goes back or if it was a feint.

@grizzly source?

@Berg https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/rebel-russian-mercenaries-halt-advance-moscow-kremlin-says-fighters-face-no-2023-06-24/

Russian mercenaries return to bases after challenge to Putin’s authority

The aborted mutiny raises big questions about the Russian president’s grip on a country he has ruled for more than two decades. Putin has not made public comments since the deal was struck to de-escalate the crisis.

https://www.npr.org/2023/06/25/1184198813/the-wagner-group-retreated-from-its-march-on-justice-in-russia-ending-the-rebell

How does this resolve if Prigozhin is mysteriously found dead in Belarus?

@GustavoMafra If he’s dead before this closes, I’d say N/A since the agreement would be real but not honored by Russia if they kill him. If he’s killed by one of his own market resolves to yes

@grizzly Ok, so this is only about Wagner/Prigozhin honoring their part of the deal? Russia's part (Prigozhin charges are dropped, he's moving safely to Belarus) does not determine market resolution?

@GustavoMafra Pretty much, because of the short timeframe. If Russia decides to charge him tonight then the market will resolve as no. If this was a longer timeframe then absolutely Russia’s part is important to market resolution but the gist is really will anyone have broken contract in the next day