This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize?

Remake of https://manifold.markets/Jack_Rose/will-the-wagner-group-still-exist-b, asking about 2024 rather than 2023.

Resolves Yes if Wagner group (under any name) still maintains some form of operations in Africa** as an independent paramilitary. Resolves No if Wagner group dissolves/is incorporated into the Russian military.

** Prior to Jan 12, this read "Middle East/Africa/Russia/Eastern Europe etc." instead of Africa. Due to definitional issues and possible ambiguities, this has been changed. Please comment if you give a significant probability of Wagner exiting Africa but still operating in a large capacity, as an independent paramilitary, outside of Africa.