Asking for a friend… Will a specific mid-level (FS-03) Foreign Service Officer Generalist be dismissed without cause during the first two years of the Trump administration? This market will resolve as "Yes" if the officer's employment is effectively terminated due to administrative action by the new administration. This does not necessarily need to occur through a reclassification to Schedule F. It could also involve the creation of an untenable work situation—such as the cessation of salary, a mass relocation, or any other action that forces the officer out without direct cause.

This market will not resolve as "Yes" if the officer resigns, retires, or leaves for any reason unrelated to blanket administrative action by the new administration. Due to the ambiguity of the resolution criteria, I will not be placing a bet in this market.

To prevent an N/A resolution, if the officer leaves the service but the reasons are not explicitly clear, this market will resolve proportionally based on the percentage of employees at the same rank who have left the service for any reason.