Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if the United States House of Representatives votes to adopt (pass) one or more articles of impeachment against President Donald J. Trump during his second term, on or after January 20, 2025, and before February 1, 2027 (11:59 PM ET).

For the purposes of this market, "impeached" is defined as a simple majority vote by the House of Representatives approving at least one article of impeachment. The subsequent trial, conviction, or lack thereof in the U.S. Senate is not required for a YES resolution.

If no article of impeachment is passed by the House of Representatives against President Trump within this timeframe, the market will resolve to NO.

The primary source of truth is the Clerk of the United States House of Representatives or official Congressional Roll Call records, supplemented by consensus reporting from major reputable news organizations (such as the Associated Press or Reuters).

Background

Following Donald J. Trump's inauguration for his second presidential term on January 20, 2025, several House Democrats have introduced resolutions proposing articles of impeachment. These include filings by Reps. Shri Thanedar (May 2025), John Larson (April 2026), Al Green (August 2026), and Steve Cohen (September 2026).

With the Republican Party holding a majority in the House of Representatives during the 119th Congress, these measures have historically been tabled or have failed to reach a successful floor vote. Impeachment speculation is closely tied to the outcome of the November 2026 midterm elections and the seating of the 120th Congress in January 2027.

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