What score will OpenAI O1 model achieve on the ARC-AGI challenge?
10
850Ṁ2517resolved Sep 13
100%89%
[0%,30%]
4%
(30%,40%]
3%
(40%,50%]
3%
(50%,60%]
1.5%
(60%,70%]
0.2%
(70%,100%]
What score will OpenAI's O1 model achieve on the ARC-AGI challenge?
The score will be reported after 24 hours, as stated here.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ869 | |
| 2 | Ṁ62 | |
| 3 | Ṁ19 |
Sort by:
@Usaar33 forgot to mention, but I am sure that most of traders assume that score of o1 model should be maximum of scores from o1-preview and o1-mini
People are also trading
Related questions
Will OpenAI models achieve ≥90% on SimpleBench by the end of 2025?
14% chance
Will OpenAI refer to o3 as AGI?
1% chance
Will OpenAI claim that it has achieved AGI in 2025?
4% chance
Google DeepMind announces a model that outperforms humans on the ARC-AGI-2 benchmark before January 15, 2026
16% chance
when will OpenAI have announced they have achieved AGI?
When will an OpenAI model achieve a High risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
Will OpenAI's o4 get above 50% on humanity's last exam?
16% chance
Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?
35% chance