Will OpenAI's o4 get above 50% on humanity's last exam?
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Resolves N/A if there is no o4 model. o4 is defined as any compute setting on the o4 model. Something like deepresearch (which is based on o3/o4) would also resolve yes.
Update 2025-04-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): o4 mini Exclusion Clarification
o4 is defined as any compute setting on the o4 model.
o4 mini is explicitly excluded from being considered as o4.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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They have to almost 4x the o4-mini score for this to happen, so definitely unlikely. However, given how much they were willing to spend on compute to get an unexpectedly high score on a similar high profile benchmark with o3 earlier it could happen, especially given a few months more of tinkering.
12% was simply a bit too low
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