Will OpenAI models achieve ≥90% on SimpleBench by the end of 2025?
31
10kṀ15kDec 31
42%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market evaluates whether OpenAI's models will reach a ≥90% performance on SimpleBench, a benchmark assessing AI's proficiency in fundamental tasks, by the end of 2025. This aligns with CEO Sam Altman's recent prediction that models will saturate benchmarks by the end of 2025.
Check the benchmark website and leaderboard:
https://simple-bench.com/
Check the video where AI Explained sent the challenge:
https://youtu.be/tGsBJhMbiIU?si=TtH3c6P72mhxeMn7
Check another similar market:
https://manifold.markets/HenryGeorge/will-any-model-get-above-human-leve
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Related questions
Related questions
Will any model get above human level on the Simple Bench benchmark before September 1st, 2025.
68% chance
Will a single model achieve superhuman performance on all OpenAI gym environments by 2025?
25% chance
Will any AI model score >80% on Epoch's Frontier Math Benchmark in 2025?
26% chance
Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025?
48% chance
Will OpenAI still be considered one of the top players in AI by end of 2025
90% chance
Will AI image generating models score >= 90% on Winoground by June 1, 2025?
82% chance
Will the top model by OpenAI rank 3rd (or lower) behind 2 other model families at any point before 2026?
41% chance
Will OpenAI's next major LLM (after GPT-4) achieve over 50% resolution rate on the SWE-bench benchmark?
75% chance
Will OpenAI fold in 2025?
3% chance
Will openAI have the most accurate LLM across most benchmarks by EOY 2024?
37% chance