Conditional on China Supplying Arm to Russia in 2023, will China invade Taiwan before the end of 2028?
9
210Ṁ310resolved Jan 8
Resolved
N/A1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves, no later than end of 2028, with criterion identical to the first market below, with the exception that, if the second market resolves to something other than Yes, this market will resolve to N/A immediately.
In the case that the invasion occurs during 2023 but before arm supply, this resolves N/A.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
This other market should be lower (earlier end date, plus no conditioning on aggression by China) but it's 8 points higher.
https://manifold.markets/MarlonK/will-china-attempt-to-invade-taiwan
People are also trading
Related questions
Conditional on China Not Supplying Arm to Russia in 2023, will China invade Taiwan before the end of 2028?
27% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2025
8% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
42% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2025?
6% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2028?
30% chance
Will China begin an invasion of Taiwan by 2028?
33% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2025?
7% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2025?
7% chance
Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
22% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2025?
6% chance