Conditional on China Supplying Arm to Russia in 2023, will China invade Taiwan before the end of 2028?
9
161
Ṁ311Ṁ210
resolved Jan 8
Resolved
N/A1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves, no later than end of 2028, with criterion identical to the first market below, with the exception that, if the second market resolves to something other than Yes, this market will resolve to N/A immediately.
In the case that the invasion occurs during 2023 but before arm supply, this resolves N/A.
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This other market should be lower (earlier end date, plus no conditioning on aggression by China) but it's 8 points higher.
https://manifold.markets/MarlonK/will-china-attempt-to-invade-taiwan
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