If there is a song created primarily by a ML/AI system that's present in the year-end top 100 list by billboard, for the year 2023, 2024, or 2025, then this market resolves YES, otherwise NO.
Evidence for the song being significantly AI-generated can be an official blog-post by the group that created that song, or in the song credits, statements by publishing entities, etc.
I might trade in this market, but only to ensure that there are no glaring mispricings.
1,000People are also trading
Here's something interesting that I bet few considered - why can't one of us do this?
I probably won't succeed, but what I realized is that there is absolutely nothing at this point that makes me less likely than anyone else to be able to do it. It's clear to me that the only reason I can't do this is because of my own lack of understanding what people like in music, which is improving with every song, not because the models are unable to do it.
I have no doubt this will occur by the end of 2025; and I think it will come from a computer scientist, not a professional artist.
I got access to beta of suno.ai, I can totally see this happening. If a big artist collaborates and releases an AI song in the middle of hype cycle , this is not that hard
I feel like it'd have to be a PR thing, like some popular singer or group releases an AI song in partnership with Google or something. Even so, less than 2 years is not that much time, we are not at human-level AI song creation yet, and then they'd still have to make it to the top 100 songs.
Will a song with only AI vocals count? (assuming no based on your previous responses)
@firstuserhere If the song is written and produced by humans but the singing is AI generated
@Shai right now in my opinion, it wouldn't be sufficient if that's the only thing as per the "Evidence for the song being significantly AI-generated" but i am open to hearing arguments for if it should or shouldn't count
@cloudprism it's the grasp of really subtle details that blows my mind. every time I listen again I catch new things. headphones definitely recommended
funnily enough, it's this more than GPT-4 that's really made me 'feel' the pace of AI progress on a gut level
@Rodeo Truly, it's amazing what ML researchers and practitioners have been able to do over the past few years. It goes to show what humanity can accomplish as long as we never give up!
@BoltonBailey yeah given Google’s relative lagging in the AI race, I thought this release might let me down. But no - they’ve really turned things around
@DesTiny having significant influence on the song's melody, harmony, rhythm, instrumental timbre and tone, and EQ mixing (inspired by https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8403/25-top-100-songs-made-by-ai-by-2050/)
@firstuserhere I personally do not know what all these things do - so, I'm open to an easier resolution criteria
@DesTiny In a nutshell, a thumb rule like- the AI system was responsible for something like >= 30% of the song production process seems reasonable to me
having significant influence on the song's melody, harmony, rhythm, instrumental timbre and tone, and EQ mixing […] I personally do not know what all these things do
(I don't think there were anything unreasonable, I just found it funny, and I like this meme)