3
Will there be a song created by an AI system in the year-end top 100 Billboards chart by 2026?
125
closes 2025
65%
chance

If there is a song created primarily by a ML/AI system that's present in the year-end top 100 list by billboard, for the year 2023, 2024, or 2025, then this market resolves YES, otherwise NO.

Evidence for the song being significantly AI-generated can be an official blog-post by the group that created that song, or in the song credits, statements by publishing entities, etc.

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Austin avatar
Austinbought Ṁ100 of YES
cloudprism avatar
Hayden Jacksonis predicting YES at 70%

@Austin I've listened to this 10 times already. This future we live in is amazing

Rodeo avatar
Rodeo

@cloudprism it's the grasp of really subtle details that blows my mind. every time I listen again I catch new things. headphones definitely recommended

funnily enough, it's this more than GPT-4 that's really made me 'feel' the pace of AI progress on a gut level

BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Bailey

@Rodeo Truly, it's amazing what ML researchers and practitioners have been able to do over the past few years. It goes to show what humanity can accomplish as long as we never give up!

Rodeo avatar
Rodeo

@BoltonBailey yeah given Google’s relative lagging in the AI race, I thought this release might let me down. But no - they’ve really turned things around

ZZZZZZ avatar
ZZZ ZZZ
Wobbles avatar
Wobbles

how important does the AI have to be for the song? Like what if it just wrote a single verse or something

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserherebought Ṁ1 of NO

@DesTiny having significant influence on the song's melody, harmony, rhythm, instrumental timbre and tone, and EQ mixing (inspired by https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8403/25-top-100-songs-made-by-ai-by-2050/)

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserhereis predicting NO at 64%

@firstuserhere I personally do not know what all these things do - so, I'm open to an easier resolution criteria

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserhereis predicting NO at 64%

@DesTiny In a nutshell, a thumb rule like- the AI system was responsible for something like >= 30% of the song production process seems reasonable to me

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