Suno AI v3 just dropped, and I've updated significantly toward thinking this is plausible. See the Suno AI v3 dashboard for related info/markets.
I'm willing to update the criteria to catch any easily verifiable "AI is being clearly successful in popular music" while this market is new. Feel free to comment for clarification or ideas
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I think we will see a solo producer use AI generated vocals but create the instrumental themselves. They can just sing/rap to their beat but then have the AI make it sound like Kendrick Lamar or a custom lyricist sings it. Once we start seeing this, then a few years minimum until it’s fully ai. Since we haven’t even seen this yet, I am going to bet NO.
5% chance at best. US copyright for AI is still being hashed out, but as things currently stand AI generated content is not granted protection.
This is a barrier because of this market's wording: "fully AI-generated". No company is going to let a song go out the door without at least some human input to grant it copyright. Even if it's fully AI generated, that will be kept secret, because money.
And Billboard Top 100 is about money. It's not about what music goes viral on TikTok or YouTube, it's about what songs are pulling in the most money.
@DanHomerick interesting, but it seems like Suno and the streaming services will allow anyone to post music their AI generated songs directly. I think Spotify 50 would catch if a song is viral without being profitable, but I'm not super familiar with this industry stuff.
@HarrisonNathan Yeah I think the music industry is a lot less straight forward than other industries. I wonder if there are other markets that can measure how good capable AI music generation has gotten 🤔
I believe Spotify has a policy against AI generated music, so that's probably relevant. Nvm, I think this is incorrect 🤷