🎵 By 2026, will any fully AI-generated song hit the Billboard Hot 100 or Spotify Top 50 for at least one week?
68
218
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2026
40%
chance

Suno AI v3 just dropped, and I've updated significantly toward thinking this is plausible. See the Suno AI v3 dashboard for related info/markets.

I'm willing to update the criteria to catch any easily verifiable "AI is being clearly successful in popular music" while this market is new. Feel free to comment for clarification or ideas

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bought Ṁ40 NO

On one hand I’m not sure about the creativity of these AI models “fully” generating viral lyrics. I think the fully AI generated song criteria for the market needs some more clarification @probajoelistic — what if it is a really elaborate prompt or whether some credit is due to the creativity in the prompt itself? Doesn’t some of the creativity then get assigned to the prompt writer (I can imagine something like this being generated as a prompt (the lyrics are not AI in the example) but the idea as a song is creative itself: https://twitter.com/nickfloats/status/1785414967035920490). On the other hand I’m sure there are billboard songs that have been accused of being the same level of generic artistry as what others would accuse these models of (and public acceptance).

On the practical side, If a fully AI generated song is meaning to generate a song with a generic prompt or no prompt at all then I suppose it is possible through a selection / filtering with a large number of tries. Factors I’ve thought might matter: the number of users(accounting for taste), the number of generated songs ( random chance), whether they actually bother to publish the song, whether they admit/publish it as AI generated (seems to be risky), advertising competency. From a recent YouTube video demonstrating this with Suno doing this seems feasible and not too onerous. The number of users and number of generated songs are unknowns, same for how many would publish such a song.

With so many unknowns that only leaves advertising competency (as relative to other artists trying to make an impact through advertising/publishing companies and social media). It would seem to me the most likely person to try this would be a person not already producing professional music (without ties to music production companies) which would mean they would either have to hire an advertising agency or leverage already existing celebrity/social media influence to reach the necessary virality. The conjunction of these two factors seems to be the greatest filter to me. If social media influencers start creating music with Suno as a hobby then I will update higher, but for now I will bet NO.

bought Ṁ50 NO

I think we will see a solo producer use AI generated vocals but create the instrumental themselves. They can just sing/rap to their beat but then have the AI make it sound like Kendrick Lamar or a custom lyricist sings it. Once we start seeing this, then a few years minimum until it’s fully ai. Since we haven’t even seen this yet, I am going to bet NO.

Suno AI is pretty clearly implying that users can upload their creations to streaming services:

5% chance at best. US copyright for AI is still being hashed out, but as things currently stand AI generated content is not granted protection.

This is a barrier because of this market's wording: "fully AI-generated". No company is going to let a song go out the door without at least some human input to grant it copyright. Even if it's fully AI generated, that will be kept secret, because money.

And Billboard Top 100 is about money. It's not about what music goes viral on TikTok or YouTube, it's about what songs are pulling in the most money.

@DanHomerick interesting, but it seems like Suno and the streaming services will allow anyone to post music their AI generated songs directly. I think Spotify 50 would catch if a song is viral without being profitable, but I'm not super familiar with this industry stuff.

bought Ṁ1 NO

This just isn't in the financial interest of music companies, who choose the top songs by pouring advertizing dollars into them.

@HarrisonNathan Yeah I think the music industry is a lot less straight forward than other industries. I wonder if there are other markets that can measure how good capable AI music generation has gotten 🤔

I believe Spotify has a policy against AI generated music, so that's probably relevant. Nvm, I think this is incorrect 🤷

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