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MANIFOLD
Will @Mira go bankrupt by Jan 2, 2024?
33
Ṁ570Ṁ15k
resolved Dec 23
Resolved
YES

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predictedYES

You guys might enjoy hearing that I'm still eligible for loans. I tried to get a screenshot but it disappeared too quickly: M219.

@Mira doing better than i am

predictedNO

@firstuserhere So now that you actually won the step market, NOW your loans are being throttled lol

predictedYES

The loan total was the 2nd of my 4 Artifacts of Power, intended for self-defense when small-minded enemies attack me or my friends. The 1st artifact was /Mira/test-market-aa83c9b211e8 , which was a special market in state that allows printing of infinite mana(such issue has since been reported and fixed, though for a while it was only "fixed" rather than fixed and I could still use it just the same, though I chose not to).

I wield the Artifacts of Power not as tools of destruction, but as instruments of balance, ensuring that the scales of justice are not tipped by the heavy hand of tyranny. Thus, I have decided only to cause damage comparable to @Catnee and @NikitaSkovoroda 's unjust fine(the -M615k net worth being almost the same amount as the managrams), and choose not to activate the 3rd or 4th artifacts at this time.

I also choose not to explain or identify them, because I feel that a persistently lurking sense of paranoia would do the admins good.

Mfw mira owes me mana

predictedNO

@Gen mfw I owe mira mana

predictedNO

This truly is one of the days of all time

I think this resolves to YES, anyone wants to contest that?

predictedYES

deleveraging

@Mira order is emerging from the chaos, its beautiful

@Mira BUT WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO MANIFOLD WITHOUT MIRA

predictedYES

@Mira If y'all were smart you'd be frontrunning my sells by buying them up to 5% minimum

@Mira legendary.

predictedYES

New developments

predictedYES

@firstuserhere /market "Will @Mira reach negative M1 million in profits, net worth, or balance by Jan 2, 2024?"

predictedNO

@firstuserhere So that's why Mira was betting against Taylor Swift. @Mira, I'm sorry for ever doubting your forecasting skills.

bought Ṁ1,000 NO

@Tumbles If FUH fails the step challenge Mira is filthy rich. And if FUH succeeds then Mira will have a balance of -300k, but a net worth of 250k if you count the money I owe them. I didn't do a deep dive on Mira's investments, just skimmed the highest value ones, but I just don't see them going to 0

@Tumbles And if FUH succeeds, how will you pay back the loans you owe Mira?

predictedYES

@Fedor and i will.

predictedNO

@Fedor I simply will still have enough mana, I have many other end of year bets

Federal Reserve Bitcoin Meme GIF

predictedYES

Can we get a ruling on the definition of ‘going bankrupt’?

@NicoDelon @Mira since this is based on your statement, do you wanna take a stab at defining this?

predictedNO

@NicoDelon The actual definition I had in mind was, "Negative balance, all positions have outstanding loans and are underwater such that I can't sell to get positive balance, and the account is in a state where loans will never bring the balance positive".

Negative net worth could cause that, because it disables loans.

Negative net worth with positive balance... I can still trade in the meantime, but I don't get loans. I'm in a state where I go bankrupt if Manifold calls my existing loans but it wouldn't count just yet because it hasn't come due yet.

Negative net worth with negative balance, but I can easily sell some positions to get positive again. I think that shouldn't count as long as I do it within a day or two.