Resolves according to the % of the buckets filled. If a user's % is <= 15%, then that user will resolve to YES, otherwise to NO. The results from November are shown below, aggregated by @chrisjbillington
Most active
===========
1. Joshua active in 1989 buckets (45.1%)
2. deagol active in 1851 buckets (42.0%)
3. chrisjbillington active in 1352 buckets (30.7%)
4. Shump active in 1133 buckets (25.7%)
5. jacksonpolack active in 1131 buckets (25.6%)
6. firstuserhere active in 1117 buckets (25.3%)
7. NicoDelon active in 1090 buckets (24.7%)
8. TheBayesian active in 1088 buckets (24.7%)
9. ChristopherRandles active in 1010 buckets (22.9%)
10. SirCryptomind active in 985 buckets (22.3%)
11. SemioticRivalry active in 977 buckets (22.1%)
12. KnowNothing active in 946 buckets (21.4%)
13. Mira active in 924 buckets (20.9%)
14. Lion active in 908 buckets (20.6%)
15. Agh active in 844 buckets (19.1%)
16. FairlyFrozen active in 826 buckets (18.7%)
17. mattyb active in 743 buckets (16.8%)
18. BTE active in 704 buckets (16.0%)
19. IsaacKing active in 687 buckets (15.6%)
20. Panfilo active in 686 buckets (15.6%)Basically, who amongst these will be LESS active on manifold this month?
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ623 | |
| 2 | Ṁ114 | |
| 3 | Ṁ111 | |
| 4 | Ṁ55 | |
| 5 | Ṁ53 |
Full results for December here:
This is all of December in UTC-7, which is the timezone leagues seasons start on, although leagues hasn't ended quite yet (so don't take this as definitive of the results for similar markets about leagues! Just very close in all likelihood):
https://gist.github.com/chrisjbillington/af076d2b9eae9bf28f84864ba67735f3
@chrisjbillington I was so scared to open it—and for good reason, it turns out. 🫠 Thanks for making this!
@firstuserhere the following users can resolve NO:
@Mira
@TheBayesian i suspect mine too, probably long ago (i don’t have the hard data), but it’s somehow still outstanding despite others resolving.
@firstuserhere:
@Joshua, @SirCryptomind, @chrisjbillington, @NicoDelon, and @mattyb can resolve NO.
@shankypanky it’s mostly me realizing that i bought something dumb and selling my position 5 mins later
@mattyb better strategy than my time here which is to buy something dumb but somehow get too attached to sell it off so just hold on hoping it somehow becomes smart
(why am I like this?)
@shankypanky i’ve done that twice this month now, losing 700 and 800 mana in each. Now I’ve got no confidence in my positions haha
@mattyb I could lose my ass at the end of the year if Kanye doesn't release his album on the 31st and it's the most unreasonable and stubborn thing I'm doing (in not one but two markets) but I'm letting it ride like a game of chicken
@shankypanky oof, good luck 🤞 the upside is that you look far enough ahead that you’ll likely promote even without a Ye album.
i have relatively few positions set to fire at the EoY. I’ve held a Sudoku 200M NO for a while now, and I trust BTE to make his competitor (I put a bit of hopium into BTE, let’s hope he can deliver).
@mattyb sometimes I wonder if I make bad bets for masochistic reasons because the stress makes me feel alive 😅 starting today I'm counting the 12 days of Kanyemas and hoping for the best lol
I'm on those optimistic BTE vibes too (that's probably not comforting given all the other shit I've said haha) and I'm still hoping the Manifold Apple Podcasts resolution comes through favourably sooner than later 🙃
@shankypanky this app does have you rooting for some awful things/people at times. I remember being upset at the Gaza ceasefire for the briefest of moments because I lost mana.
that podcast one has to resolve YES shortly.
@mattyb after today's events I have vowed not to bet on any more non-debate-related Destiny markets because I can't sit through another stream of him bitching about Melina and answering questions about snorting ADHD meds
@shankypanky as someone that doesn’t follow AI, or ecc/acc, or have a Twitter, I don’t know any of the Manifold celebs haha, and I’m always out of the loop on those markets.
Couldn’t pick Destiny out of a crowd, and someone at Taco Tuesday had to explain who Aella and a bunch of other notable people were.