Does it have to be a 20 minute film in one shot, or it can be stitched together by a video gen agent?

This one is so remarkably overdetermined

Minor: I recommend using “M$”, or directly copying the unicode “Ṁ” to denote mana. “$1000M” is naturally interpreted as 1000 million dollars.

DALLE-3 was likely trained with some sort of iterative feedback mechanism with the intention of making it follow prompts more tightly, and it worked. That indicates that the hardest plausible bottleneck to a YES resolution is less difficult than I previously expected.

Video generation is already sophisticated (and this market doesn’t require photorealistic or Turing-test-passing video), and coherent scripts are way easier to produce than good ones. Several companies seem to be expressing investment interest in projects like this, so the funding’s there to put everything together.

A poll with different percentage ranges for this market. If you'd like to make a prediction but don't wanna trade on it, use this free poll to lock it in. It closes at the end of 2024, 1 year prior to this markets resolution

It is worrying to me that on such a subjective market the market creator holds one of the highest YES shares. Especially since there is nothing in the resolution criteria about the quality of the film.

@FlorisvanDoorn reputation damage prob not worth the Ṁ407

then again, i would bet all these markets down to <10% if i was sure of no shenanigans

@FlorisvanDoorn Sigh, I wish Manifold had a better way for someone to participate in their own markets, while securing the interests of all the traders. After all, I am very interested in this market and it's evolution over time.

That said, I'll sell my shares from this market, and not trade again. I'll also subsidise the market more so as to safeguard a bit more against sudden movements.

@nickten can you share which markets you're referring to?

@FlorisvanDoorn I sold my shares, and won't trade on this. I'm creating a poll where I'll mark my prediction. That seems like a decent alternative. Perhaps an attached poll should be a toggle for some markets, and creators can toggle it on if they don't wanna trade.

@firstuserhere search for "AI". that's it. that's the list.

jk, but it does feel like a lot people on this website are very optimistic about major AI advancements soon™ and might be eager to bend definitions so it "counts". i haven't actually seen any serious markets be "misresolved" so my fears are prob silly.

also leagues disincentivize betting long term markets to much away from 50%

@nickten haha nice one. At this point I don't care much about profit maximizing, so I'm not at all hesitant to resolve against my position. I've done my fair share of profit maximizing and don't get much value in that anymore. So, assume the risk for my markets to be minimal, or consider my positions as emotional hedges against a lot of gains in capabilities.

@firstuserhere I understand the impulse to trade on your own markets, since you often make markets about the things you care about. But it shows a good character that you decide to sell your shares.

Just to be clear: I wasn't accusing you of planning to rig this market. I was just considering that this market is so ambiguous that the following two wild positions are almost(!) compatible with the current market description:

• Current neural nets are already sufficient to resolve this YES, since there are ways to generate a 20 minute very crappy film where so little happens that it isn't positively incoherent.

• Neural nets would have to be superhuman at generating films to resolve this YES, since most films have (minor) inconsistencies.

I expect that @firstuserhere would choose a pretty reasonable position within this grey area, but it is harder to do this if you have a stake yourself (you might be looking at candidates with YES-colored glasses).

I wish Manifold had a better way for someone to participate in their own markets, while securing the interests of all the traders. After all, I am very interested in this market and it's evolution over time.

In order to be able to trade in a market with subjective criteria without introducing bias, you need a 3rd party to adjudicate the resolution. So just have that 3rd party create the market and then subsidize it yourself. (You can also transfer the M$1k mana to that 3rd party to pay them back for the min cost to create a market.) Like, yes, it would be nicer for the UI to enable you to “appoint” an adjudicator so they didn’t need to do anything besides accept the role, but I think the above procedure basically achieves what you want.

Created two markets for shorter timelines asking for shorter duration of coherent films

~deleted~

1k

AI will generate coherent 5-min films by the end of 2024NO

AI

Technical AI Timelines

AI Culture War

18

Ṁ1000

5

~deleted~

1k

AI will generate coherent 5-min films by the end of 202564% chance

Bet YesBet No

AI

Technical AI Timelines

AI Culture War

92

Ṁ1000

5

Thanks for duplicating. I think yours is better

Does it have to be an end to end neural network? Or there can be a separate neural network that writes script?

@NikhilVyas Can be separate, no problem. Given the AI-generated script, the next AI system creates coherent 20-min film that tightly follows that script. Must be able to generate 20 min long films though.

This is a duplicate of the following market with a bit less strict criteria

@firstuserhere this one doesn’t have the condition for a film to be accepted at a film festival

@long yes that's right. The linked market does, this one doesn't.