(free poll) Neural Nets will generate coherent 20-min films by the end of 2025
27
resolved Dec 31
30-50%
50-70%
10-30%
70-90%
<10%
>90%
Set criteria:
Must be coherent
Must have coherent scenes and plot/plots/themes
The script may be generated by another ai
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
I feel like a properly wired neural net could do this right now? Coherence is kind a low bar.
Get GPT4 to write a script, then prompt one of these models repeatedly and stitch them together and you'd probably have something coherent if weird.
People are also trading
Related questions
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
26% chance
In mid 2026, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short film to a prompt?
10% chance
By mid-2027, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
13% chance
In 2028, will a publicly available AI be able to generate a full high-quality film to a prompt?
24% chance
In 2030, which of the following prompts will an AI be able to accurately follow to generate a high-quality movie?
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?
63% chance
Will a generative AI model be able to make a movie from a novel before the end of 2027?
58% chance
Who will create the first AI model to generate a high quality movie before 2028?
At least one of the most powerful neural nets at end of 2026 will be trained using 10^27 FLOPs
84% chance
At least one of the most powerful neural nets at end of 2030 will be trained using 10^27 FLOPs
93% chance