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In mid 2026, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short film to a prompt?

10% chance

Who will create the first AI model to generate a high quality movie before 2028?

Will AI-generated content be nominated for a major award (like the Oscars or Grammys) by the end of 2026

11% chance

In which year will an AI-generated movie become the first major box office success?

2035

Will a movie made entirely by artificial intelligence win an Academy Award by 2030?

7% chance

Before 2029, will a 90 minute or longer film generated by AI produce at least $500,000 in revenue?

56% chance

Will video-creating AIs make Hollywood movies significantly cheaper to make by 2033?

80% chance

Will an AI-created movie have 100mm views by 2028?

94% chance

Will a movie that has at least some AI-generated dialogue win an Oscar by EOY 2028?

22% chance

Will OpenAI release a high-quality AI generated movie by the end of 2028?

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@mods Resolves NO

Any details about how this will be decided? It's very light on criteria

what counts as ai-generated?
does it have to be "make a movie about batman" <GPUs go brrrrr and spit out The Dark Knight 2>
or does it only have to be as AI-generated as a Pixar movie is "computer animated" ie humans making all or nearly all of the creative choices, but AI filling in lots of details that would otherwise have been very time consuming to create?