Set criteria: Must be coherent Must have coherent scenes and plot/plots/themes Script may be provided separately, but must be AI generated May resolve early

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 7% chance (99 traders, as of Jan 2, 2026).

AI will generate coherent 5-min films by the end of 2025

MANIFOLD

AI will generate coherent 5-min films by the end of 2025

Ṁ1kṀ25k

Dec 31

chance

ALL

Set criteria:

Must be coherent
Must have coherent scenes and plot/plots/themes
Script may be provided separately, but must be AI generated
May resolve early

Market context

Technical AI Timelines

AI Culture War

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Will AI be able to create a video with this much detail by 2030?

92% chance

Will you be able to use AI tools to create believable adult movies by the end of 2026?

68% chance

Who will create the first AI model to generate a high quality movie before 2028?

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@traders does anyone have an example of this they would like to share?

Keep an eye on this one too for posted solutions /_deleted_/neural-nets-will-generate-coherent-fcc6dd1407c8

Initiator of the market deleted, how is it decided now?

bought Ṁ250 YES

Is this more in the flavour of “one model will sometimes be able to create a coherent 5-min film” or “one model will consistently output numerous coherent 5-min films”? I would interpret it as the former.

At what cost/availability?

bought Ṁ100 YES

i put it at an 80% chance yes, but will not be available to the public; will be demoed though by DeepMind or OAI

bought Ṁ600 NO

Obviously not

People are also trading

Will AI be able to create a video with this much detail by 2030?

92% chance

Will you be able to use AI tools to create believable adult movies by the end of 2026?

68% chance

Who will create the first AI model to generate a high quality movie before 2028?

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