AI will generate coherent 5-min films by the end of 2025
92
1kṀ22k
Dec 31
64%
chance

Set criteria:

  • Must be coherent

  • Must have coherent scenes and plot/plots/themes

  • Script may be provided separately, but must be AI generated

  • May resolve early

AI
Technical AI Timelines
AI Culture War
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will there be an AI Winter by the end of 2025?
10% chance
Will AI generates film (not video) by using a person's script before 2026
50% chance
Neural Nets will generate coherent 20-min films by the end of 2025 (less strict criteria market)
35% chance
Neural Nets will generate coherent 20-min films by the end of 2025 that win film festival awards [See link to better qu]
14% chance
Will AI generate realistic video of animal movement before 2026?
93% chance
AI Movies by 2027
71% chance
hollywood-level AI-generated feature film by 2026
9% chance
Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2025?
40% chance
Will AI be able to create a video with this much detail by 2030?
92% chance
Will an AI-created movie have 100mm views by 2025?
17% chance
Sort by:

Initiator of the market deleted, how is it decided now?

bought Ṁ250 YES

Is this more in the flavour of “one model will sometimes be able to create a coherent 5-min film” or “one model will consistently output numerous coherent 5-min films”? I would interpret it as the former.

At what cost/availability?

bought Ṁ100 YES

i put it at an 80% chance yes, but will not be available to the public; will be demoed though by DeepMind or OAI

bought Ṁ600 NO

Obviously not

People are also trading

Will there be an AI Winter by the end of 2025?
10% chance
Will AI generates film (not video) by using a person's script before 2026
50% chance
Neural Nets will generate coherent 20-min films by the end of 2025 (less strict criteria market)
35% chance
Neural Nets will generate coherent 20-min films by the end of 2025 that win film festival awards [See link to better qu]
14% chance
Will AI generate realistic video of animal movement before 2026?
93% chance
AI Movies by 2027
71% chance
hollywood-level AI-generated feature film by 2026
9% chance
Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2025?
40% chance
Will AI be able to create a video with this much detail by 2030?
92% chance
Will an AI-created movie have 100mm views by 2025?
17% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy