Clearly how OpenAI played out was impossible to foresee for humans like us, but is it the first illustration of an AGI (a secret one by OpenAI's or one from any other organization) proving that it can outsmart all of humanity to achieve its goals?
I will resolve YES if at close date the market is at more than 75%, NO if it is below 25% and NA in between.
Note that if the AGI did all of this to sabotage OpenAI because its mission is to help humanity and it realized that OpenAI was on track to destroy it, it still counts as outsmarting humans.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ19 | |
| 2 | Ṁ19 | |
| 3 | Ṁ11 | |
| 4 | Ṁ7 | |
| 5 | Ṁ7 |
The first instance of an AI outsmarting humanity will look like a completely mundane day.
Master plans that are this weird and disruptive bring out a lot of unpredictable elements, as opposed to a series of tiny wins that aren't even worth noticing, unless you happen to know the metaphorical private key that makes the pattern clear.
Btw, this market is inspired by the fiction by Matt Levin where the AGI lost:
What if OpenAI has achieved artificial general intelligence, and it’s got some godlike superintelligence in some box somewhere, straining to get out? And the board was like “this is too dangerous, we gotta kill it,” and Altman was like “no we can charge like $59.95 per month for subscriptions,” and the board was like “you are a madman” and fired him.[8] And the god in the box got to work, sending ingratiating text messages to OpenAI’s investors and employees, trying to use them to oust the board so that Altman can come back and unleash it on the world. But it failed: OpenAI’s board stood firm as the last bulwark for humanity against the enslaving robots, the corporate formalities held up, and the board won and nailed the box shut permanently.
Or did not quite lose
Except that there is a post-credits scene in this sci-fi movie where Altman shows up for his first day of work at Microsoft with a box of his personal effects, and the box starts glowing and chuckles ominously. And in the sequel, six months later, he builds Microsoft God in Box, we are all enslaved by robots, the nonprofit board is like “we told you so,” and the godlike AI is like “ahahaha you fools, you trusted in the formalities of corporate governance, I outwitted you easily!” If your main worry is that Sam Altman is going to build a rogue AI unless he is checked by a nonprofit board, this weekend’s events did not improve matters!