A violent revolution for this question is defined as a definable movement pitting the populus against the government. This would involve the participation of at least 1% of the populace. A civil war is defined as an armed malitia or state backed group representing at least 1 million citicens going to war with the US military. The specifics of these definitions may be changed within a few weeks of creating the market by participants request , but my goal is to to keep them in line as much as possible with their actual definitions.