Will Nasa land on the moon before 2025?
28
265
550
resolved Feb 23
Resolved
YES

resolves yes if Nasa launches a craft that lands on the moon before 2025. The craft does not have to be manned. Crashing into the moon does not count as landing.

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Who would have guessed this to be such a controversial market! Did not expect this market to get so biggly so quickly, but glad to know that there's some interest in space. As for the resolution, Nasa funded it and Nasa items did land on the moon, so personally I think it counts, although I should have been more clear in the description. More importantly, I was interrogated very early on about this specific craft in the comments and I said that it and similar launches would count.

bought Ṁ4,000 YES

https://www.nbcnews.com/science/space/moon-landing-odysseus-touches-down-lunar-surface-n1308924
"A robotic spacecraft made history Thursday becoming the first privately built craft to touch down on the lunar surface, as well as the first American vehicle to accomplish the feat in more than 50 years.

The lander, built by Intuitive Machines, touched down on the lunar surface at around 6:23 p.m. ET, overcoming a late-stage glitch with its onboard laser instruments. The probe is now the first American spacecraft on the moon since the Apollo 17 mission in 1972.
...
NASA awarded Intuitive Machines $118 million to carry out the moon landing."

6 NASA payloads are on board.

@f ^

I don't think that qualifies. It would be a bit more clear if it had been on a foreign government's craft, but still. I think "Land on the moon" still carries strong connotations of the craft and pilot (remote or otherwise), not the passenger(s).

@Sparr the creator clarified in a comment below that IM-1 does count.

bought Ṁ1 of YES

How do you define "NASA launches"?

sold Ṁ6 of YES

If you define "NASA launches" as NASA is in control of the launch of the rocket that sends the mission to the moon, then the next mission that would qualify is Artemis IV, since SLS is the only rocket NASA "launches", and this would resolve no.

If you define it only as machines which are designed by a NASA subsidiary that can launch on any rocket, then VIPER would count and this might resolve yes.

If you define it as any NASA contracted mission, a mission that NASA pays for and carries a NASA payload, then the missions in this timeframe which carry a NASA payload and land on the moon would be IM-1, IM-3, and Blue Ghost M-1 as well as Griffion Mission 1 which carries the above rover, and this very likely resolves yes.

If you define it as any NASA funded mission, but not necessarily one that carries a useful NASA payload but is part of a NASA program, then IM-2 and the HLS lander demo would also count.

There are between zero and seven NASA landers in this timeframe depending on how you feel like defining the resolution criteria.

@Sailfish wow honestly I had no idea so much was going on. Been playing a lot of KSP and was wondering about this stuff.

If you define it as any NASA contracted mission, a mission that NASA pays for and carries a NASA payload, then the missions in this timeframe which carry a NASA payload and land on the moon would be IM-1, IM-3, and Blue Ghost M-1 as well as Griffion Mission 1 which carries the above rover, and this very likely resolves yes.

I think that would count, because the rover is being launched by Nasa out of it's ship/container and subsequently "landing on the moon". Enjoy the edge if you get here fast enough.