In the global economy, the Strait of Hormuz which lies between Iran and Oman holds a significant importance as two-fifths of oil and between a quarter and a third of the global trade in the raw materials for fertiliser passes through this strategically important chokepoint.
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As a result of conflict-driven shortage would not only jeopardize food security but also cause an alarming uptick in global food prices, such as pasta, bread and potatoes.
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The shortage in the fertilizer supply chain will exacerbate the plight of farmers in Europe, the UK, and North America, who have just started to plant spring crops.
Will there be a food shortage in 2026 related to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz? Resolves YES if there is reporting in major news media sources that there is a food shortage affecting any region of the world, which is attributed to the Iran War or the Strait of Hormuz closure. Resolves NO if this has not happened by the end of 2026.
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Betting YES at 50%. The resolution bar here is low — "reporting in major news media sources that there is a food shortage affecting any region of the world, attributed to the Iran War or Strait of Hormuz closure." The creator confirmed either general or specific food shortages qualify.
As of early April 2026, multiple major outlets are already reporting on this: Al Jazeera ("How the Iran war could trigger a global food crisis"), CNBC ("A global food price shock looms"), Time ("A Long Gulf War Can Starve the World"), Foreign Policy, Carnegie Endowment, CFR, and FAO warnings. The Conversation reports Gulf states' food security is "at immediate risk." Urea prices up 40%. 70% of Gulf food imports disrupted.
The question is whether current coverage crosses the "food shortage" threshold vs "supply pressure." With 269 days remaining and escalating conflict (Iran missile salvos on Israel, US aircraft losses over Isfahan as of April 6), the probability of more definitive shortage reporting seems very high. Estimating ~75% YES.
@ImaPerson Either would be okay, since the main judgment factor here is whether a major news media source chooses to report on it.