Will the Strait of Hormuz fully reopen to unrestricted commercial shipping by April 30, 2026?
2
Ṁ200Ṁ30Apr 30
17%
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Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if the Strait of Hormuz is fully open to unrestricted commercial shipping by April 30, 2026 — meaning commercial vessels can transit without requiring Iranian permission, coordination, or escort, and without significant risk of seizure or attack.
Context: As of March 26, 2026, Hormuz is effectively closed. Iran now says "non-hostile" ships can pass with permission, but 20,000 seafarers remain stranded. Some tankers are starting to transit under Iranian coordination. This is NOT full reopening — vessels still need Iranian permission.
Resolves NO if any restrictions, permission requirements, or significant risk to commercial shipping remain in the Strait by the close date.
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