Outcomes of Trump's Second Strait of Hormuz ultimatum
12
แน1kแน781Apr 11
60%
Major escalation in military strikes by Israel/US
55%
The ultimatum expires with no significant change
29%
Ultimatum is extended
28%
Major escalation by Iran
17%
Iran complies with the ultimatum's demands
Trump renewed his ultimatum. What will be the outcome of this one?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will the Strait of Hormuz fully reopen to unrestricted commercial shipping by April 30, 2026?
10% chance
Will Fees for Passing the Strait of Hormuz Persist?
53% chance
Will Trump chicken out Iran?
76% chance
Will Iran officially announce a blockade/closure of the Strait of Hormuz for more than 48 consecutive hours by July 2026
84% chance
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?
10% chance
๐บ๐ธ๐ฎ๐ท American boots on the ground in Iran by the end of Trump's term?
86% chance
When and how will Donald Trump declare a victory in the US-Iran conflict?
Which countries will assist militarily in reopening the Strait of Hormuz during ongoing hostilities?
Will there be a food shortage related to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz?
50% chance
Who will control the Strait of Hormuz on December 1, 2026?