Resolution Criteria

The market resolves YES if vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz average more than 153 per day (the pre-conflict baseline) for at least 7 consecutive days by April 30, 2026. Resolution will be determined using real-time ship transit data from the Strait of Hormuz Live Tracker or equivalent maritime intelligence sources (Starboard Maritime Intelligence, Windward, S&P Global Commodities at Sea). The market resolves NO if traffic remains below this threshold through April 30.

Background

The Strait of Hormuz has experienced ongoing geopolitical and economic disruption since February 28, 2026, following joint military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran. Tanker traffic dropped approximately 70% initially, with over 150 ships anchoring outside the strait to avoid risks, and traffic soon went to about zero. Before the conflict, the strait was averaging more than 153 vessel transits per day, but since March 1, only 78 vessels have been detected passing through, for a daily average of 13. This disruption affected about 20% of the world's daily oil supply and significant volumes of liquefied natural gas.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued warnings prohibiting vessel passage through the strait, leading to an effective halt in shipping traffic. Skyrocketing insurance premiums for shippers heavily discourage taking such risks, with most insurers canceling war risk coverage altogether.

Considerations

Iran appears to favor a strategy of keeping the strait legally open while making it operationally unusable. Iran also depends on Hormuz for its own exports, particularly oil and fertilizer products, and a full physical blockade would risk collapsing its own economy. Normalization requires not only a cessation of Iranian threats and attacks, but also restoration of shipping insurance coverage and sufficient confidence among operators that transits are genuinely safe—a higher bar than simply the absence of active military operations.

This description was generated by AI.