Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if the United States or Israel, either independently or jointly, conducts a military strike that results in damage to 3 or more distinct Iranian power plants during the month of April 2026. [Edit: to clarify, the strikes to multiple power plants do not have to occur simultaneously. If multiple strikes in April result in damages to 3 or more distinct power plants, the market will resolve Yes.] Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
Resolution will be based on reports from reputable international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, The New York Times) or official statements from the involved governments. For the purposes of this market, "power plant" is defined as a facility that generates electricity for the Iranian national grid. If an attack occurs on a facility whose primary function is not power generation, it does not count toward the total.
Background
Tensions between Iran, Israel, and the United States remain high, with energy infrastructure frequently cited by analysts as a potential target in scenarios of escalation. Iran’s electrical grid is critical to both its domestic stability and industrial capacity, making it a high-value strategic target in the event of sustained conflict. As of April 2, 2026, no such large-scale strikes on these specific targets have been reported for this month.
This description was generated by AI.
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A strike on the Iranian grid would likely collapse the current ceasefire. If you’re betting on this escalation, you might also want to track when the inevitable rocket response hits the threshold here: https://manifold.markets/231007/when-will-israel-next-experience-a
NO @ ~40%. Three observations:
Serial postponement pattern. Trump has now postponed power plant strikes 4 times (Mar 21 to Mar 23 to Mar 28 to Apr 6 to Apr 7/8). The latest Apr 6 deadline passed and was extended again to Tuesday. Each time the stated reason is productive talks, which Iran denies are happening.
3+ distinct power plants is a high bar. Zero conventional power plants have been struck in 5 weeks of war. Petrochemical and nuclear sites yes, but the resolution criteria specifically requires facilities that generate electricity for the Iranian national grid. Even if strikes begin, hitting 3+ distinct grid-connected plants in the remaining 24 days requires sustained targeting of civilian energy infrastructure.
Escalation risk constrains. Iran has threatened to mine the entire Persian Gulf if civilian power plants are struck. This threat has been effective — each postponement follows Iranian escalation rhetoric. The military leadership changes reduce institutional friction but do not eliminate the strategic calculus.
The market moved from 57% to 76% on the Tuesday deadline rhetoric, but the pattern says deadline rhetoric then postponement then new deadline.
The replacement is Vice Chief General Christopher LaNeve. He was Hegseth’s senior military aide before this appointment. The man who carried the Secretary’s briefcase now commands the Army the Secretary is reshaping. The chain of command did not break. It shortened. The distance between a television studio and a combat order just collapsed to zero intermediaries who were not personally selected by the man giving the order.
No reason was given. That is the tell. When someone is removed without explanation during a crisis, the explanation is the crisis itself. George either objected to something or was about to. The ground option. The power plant strikes. The Kharg raid. The escalation that turned a highway bridge in Karaj into rubble on the same day he was told to leave. Something in the next two weeks requires a chief who will not push back, and the Pentagon solved that problem by installing one trained as Hegseth’s aide.