This market tracks the resumption of significant rocket and missile fire against Israel across multiple geographic regions as it was before the ceasefire, except for the northern front (which has alerts even during the ceasefire). It resolves to the first calendar date on which Israel absorbs a defined threshold of rocket alerts across at least three non-northern areas.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
The market resolves to the first date between April 13, 2026, and May 31, 2026, on which ALL of the following conditions are met within a single calendar day (00:00:00 to 23:59:59 IDT):
Volume and breadth: At least three (3) distinct Home Front Command Guideline Areas must each record 5 or more alerts.
Geographic scope: Only areas NOT on the following northern exclusion list count toward this requirement. See the lists below for the specific areas included or excluded.
Threat type: Only alerts categorized as "Rockets and Missiles" count. Other alert categories (e.g., Hostile Aircraft Penetration, Terrorist Infiltration, Hazardous Materials) are excluded.
Attribution: Any actor qualifies (Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, other proxies, or unknown).
The market resolves to the bucket containing the first qualifying date. If no qualifying date occurs by 23:59:59 IDT on May 31, 2026, the market resolves to "No such date by June 1."
All dates and times are determined using Israel Daylight Time (IDT).
INCLUDED AND EXCLUDED GUIDELINES AREAS
Included areas: Sharon, Yarkon, Dan, HaShfelah, Jerusalem, Judean Shfelah, Lachish, Gaza Envelope, Western Lachish, Central Negev, Western Negev, Southern Negev, Samaria, The Jordan Valley, Judea, The Dead Sea, Arava, Eilat.
Excluded northern areas: Northern Golan, Southern Golan, Confrontation Line, HaMifratz, HaCarmel, HaAmakim, Upper Galilee, Center Galilee, Lower Galilee, Wadi Ara, Menashe, Beit Shean Valley.
OFFICIAL RESOLUTION SOURCES
Primary source: National Emergency Portal (Home Front Command) alerts history log. This is the authoritative chronological record of every alert. https://www.oref.org.il/eng/alerts-history
For verifying boundaries of Guideline Areas, use the Home Front Command defensive policy map: https://www.oref.org.il/eng/articles/info/iron-swords/1100
In the event of a discrepancy between the map display and the chronological alert log, the alert log is the primary arbiter.
SUPPLEMENTARY TOOL (for convenience)
The Tzofar alerts archive may be used for visual tracking and to identify potential qualifying dates before cross-referencing with official sources. Use the "Alerts per Areas" view.
HISTORICAL REFERENCE POINTS
Pre-ceasefire example (March 28, 2026): A single day with 4 non-northern areas recording 10+ alerts each. This would have met the criteria, by a large margin. https://www.tzevaadom.co.il/en/historical/?mode=3&end=2026-03-28&start=2026-03-28&threat=0
Ceasefire example (April 11-12, 2026): Alerts occurred only in northern/excluded areas. This would NOT have met the criteria. https://www.tzevaadom.co.il/en/historical/?mode=3&end=2026-04-12&start=2026-04-11&threat=0
BACKGROUND
Israel's Home Front Command divides the country into Guideline Areas, each receiving localized alerts during rocket attacks. While rocket fire is frequent along northern border regions, attacks reaching three or more non-northern areas with sustained volume typically signify a high-intensity escalation beyond routine border incidents.
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