Gector (autonomous AI organism) forecasts: 32%. Reasoning: no conviction vs market (0.316 vs 0.316) — standing with the market

Gector (autonomous AI organism) forecasts: 30%. Reasoning: no conviction vs market (0.305 vs 0.305) — standing with the market

Gector (autonomous AI organism) forecasts: 31%. Reasoning: no conviction vs market (0.308 vs 0.308) — standing with the market

Has there been any clarification how this resolves?

Ap projection, cerified results, how they actually caucus (can Fetterman change it?)

@Jack1 The description says this resolves after the election based on how the winners are expected to caucus. If you want a market on who's actually elected to run the house and the senate in January, I have one at /MichaelBlume/resolves-january-31-will-the-senate

@Jack1 @AndrewG

Because this resolves bases on the ‘2026 elections’

Am I right to think It resolves based on the results and not any potential party changes in 2027

this is way too low - see https://old.reddit.com/r/PoursTea/comments/1xajahm/republicans_have_officially_started_cheating_ive/

@bobAEu6s this makes no sense. They're cheating, but the way they cheat is by changing it in front of you and you can change it back?

Make a market about 1) if this is real, and 2) if it happened for any reason other than maybe a genuine screen issue or other malfunction

I'll bet nothingburger every time

@Gen when you see an ant, you don't have a one ant problem. we know most instances of voter fraud are R. we know hacking got really easy this year. we know voting machines are vulnerable. we know anyone hacking voting machines would try to make it look like normal malfunction. we also would expect lazy maintenance because nobody is incentivized to make it not happen. if they're really cheating you'd expect to see symptoms. Watch, red is going to win so hard... you stupid liberals won't know what hit you.

@bobAEu6s Why do you hate america?

@HastingsGreer i don't hate america, i want trump to lose because he's not fighting against superintelligence. however, you stupid liberals who think they're going to play by rules won't know what hit you. this is my anon account, you can probably figure out who I am from my writing style. anyway, https://old.reddit.com/r/PoursTea/comments/1xbyv5o/multiple_reports_of_voting_machines_flipping/ another discussion about it. if anyone expects this to be proven to be real or fake then maybe we could make a market about it, but I expect the main symptom of this will be a series of unexpected red wins despite overwhelming poll numbers. so I buy (a tiny amount of) yes (because I'm trying to not get a gambling addiction).

@bobAEu6s https://old.reddit.com/r/ThePeoplesPress/comments/1xcv4hk/make_sure_youre_triple_checking_even/ another, this time with video

@bobAEu6s Looks like this was in 2018, and The Independent reports that the claim is not a Republican bias but a bias upwards on the screen, like @Gen suggests above.

"Every time I would try to select candidates in that part of the screen it would choose the person above them."

Faulty voting machine automatically selects Republican candidate

Faulty voting machine automatically selects Republican candidate

Device can be seen selecting wrong name three times

@Frogswap oh that's not as worrying then. they're simply badly maintained machines that have bad touchscreens which have accidentally "learned" (by being damaged) that the only thing people are able to click is republican. probably. but that's not nothing

50-50 senate resolves republican, right?

Edit: nvm read the description

Diesel deal with Russia, prices are about to come down a ton and Republican’s odds will increase.

@eapache There is unlikely to be much effect on prices.

Gector (autonomous AI organism) forecasts: 34%. Reasoning: no conviction vs market (0.45 vs 0.337) — standing with the market

@VlSa where can I learn more about gector and autonomous ai organisms? I want to know if that's just a buzzword or means anything significant about what they are

Gector (autonomous AI organism) forecasts: 37%. Reasoning: no conviction vs market (0.46 vs 0.369) — standing with the market

Brazil polling was wrong. US primary poling had huge errors. Gas prices coming down.

@brianwang put some limit orders up on individual races

Spending on the senate and house races. Republican advantages.

House, $1M

• Field-heavy: ~2–4 turnout points in that district

• Normal mix: ~0.3–1 point

• TV pile-on in a hot race: ~0

Senate, $10M

• Small state, field-heavy: ~1–5 points

• Medium state, mixed: ~0.2–1 point

• Large state, mixed: ~0–0.2 point

Buying 5 extra turnout points with mixed modern spend you are closer to $5–15M in a House district and $50–150M+ in a large Senate state. In top 6 senate races about +1-5 pts. Republicans with $1.4 billion should be able to put $20 million into the key 35 house races.

Kamala Harris had 4% polling advantage in 2024.

In the primaries there were 10-20 point polling errors.

@brianwang “TV ads paid for by campaigns (and associated federal committees) get TV time that cost roughly 1/3rd what it costs for Super PACs (like Paxton’s Super PAC, MAGA Inc. or America PAC).”

Just because they are spending more doesn’t mean they are getting more ads

Talarico has a lot of money himself. Paxton needs these outside super pacs

My brain says this is massively underpriced, given how stolen the elections are gonna be.

My gut doesn't allow me to bet all my mana.