Resolves yes if Republicans win a majority of the seats listed in the "Toss up" column on election day. If tie settles 50:50. https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 30% chance (7 traders, as of Oct 30, 2026).

Will Republicans win a Majority of Toss up house seats in 2026? [Cook Political Report]

Will Republicans win a Majority of Toss up Senate seats in 2026? [Cook Political Report]

-10% 1d30% chance

Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?

-3% 1d27% chance

Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?

5% chance

Will Republicans win a Majority of Toss up house seats in 2026? [Sabato's Crystal Ball]

+5% 1d41% chance

Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?

5% chance

Will a Democrat win these US House races in 2026?

Will Republicans win a Majority of Toss up Senate seats in 2026? [Sabato's Crystal Ball]

-4% 1d40% chance

Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?

95% chance

Will Democrats win more than 230 seats in the House in the 2026 midterms?

80% chance

Will Republicans win the 2026 midterms election?

5% chance