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MANIFOLD
Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2026?
43
Ṁ1kṀ7.3k
Dec 31
5%
chance

Resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, including reporting on weapons tests (reports that they had the weapon to perform the test are sufficient; they do not need to still be in possession of another one).

See also: /EvanDaniel/will-iran-acquire-a-nuclear-weapon

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bought Ṁ50 NO

They don't seem to be doing much:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-nMdbvN0IX8