Will China invade Taiwan before 2030?
137
Ṁ1.1kṀ19k2030
39%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before 2030?
40% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2035?
41% chance
Will Taiwan invade the PRC by 2050?
7% chance
If Trump is elected in 2024, will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
35% chance
Will China invade Vietnam before 2030?
18% chance
[Metaculus] Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?
7% chance
If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force? [Metaculus]
66% chance
Will China fully annex Taiwan before 2053?
65% chance
Will China control Taiwan in 2040?
53% chance
Sort by:
People are also trading
Related questions
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before 2030?
40% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2035?
41% chance
Will Taiwan invade the PRC by 2050?
7% chance
If Trump is elected in 2024, will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
35% chance
Will China invade Vietnam before 2030?
18% chance
[Metaculus] Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?
7% chance
If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force? [Metaculus]
66% chance
Will China fully annex Taiwan before 2053?
65% chance
Will China control Taiwan in 2040?
53% chance