Will China state vessels (e.g., CCG) board a commercial cargo ship heading to Taiwan's main island before 2027?

Question

Resolution Criteria:

This market resolves to YES if, before 2027, reliable media or official sources confirm that vessels belonging to the People's Republic of China (PRC) have physically boarded and inspected a commercial merchant ship en route to Taiwan.

Otherwise, it resolves to NO.

To resolve YES, ALL of the following conditions must be met:

1. The Actor (Who is boarding?): The boarding must be conducted by official PRC state vessels or personnel. This includes the China Coast Guard (CCG), the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), or the Maritime Safety Administration (MSA).

2. The Action (What counts as boarding?): PRC personnel must physically step foot onto the targeted vessel for the purpose of inspection, law enforcement, quarantine, or blockade.

Note: Issuing radio warnings, shadowing the vessel, or forcing it to change course without physical boarding does NOT count.

3. The Target (Who is being boarded?): The targeted vessel must be a civilian commercial/cargo ship (e.g., container ship, oil tanker, bulk carrier) operated by any domestic or international shipping company.

Exemptions: Boarding of fishing vessels, smuggling speedboats, recreational yachts, or military/government vessels does NOT count. (This is to exclude routine fishery disputes).

4. The Destination: The targeted vessel's documented or stated destination must be a port located on the main island of Taiwan (e.g., Port of Kaohsiung, Port of Keelung, Taipei Port).

Exemptions: Incidents involving ships only traveling to outlying islands like Kinmen or Matsu will NOT trigger a YES (as minor incidents frequently occur in these restricted waters).

5. Non-Rescue Context: The boarding must be an enforcement/coercive action. Boarding conducted strictly for agreed-upon search and rescue (SAR) operations or medical evacuations does NOT count.

Sources of Truth: Resolution will be based on confirmation by major credible international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, AP, Bloomberg) OR official statements from either the Taiwan Ministry of National Defense (MND) / Coast Guard Administration, or the PRC official government channels.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 30% chance (8 traders, as of May 26, 2026).