Will Australia acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?

Question

Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Australia has acquired at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st 2031.  This device must be under the sovereign control of the Australian State, and they must have the ability to use it independently.

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Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 3% chance (14 traders, as of Jun 26, 2026).

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