Update 2026-04-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Death of a Justice will count as a qualifying event for YES resolution (does not require a replacement to be confirmed).

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 52% chance (24 traders, as of Apr 15, 2026).

Will a Supreme Court Justice die, retire or be replaced for any reason by the end of 2026?

Ṁ100Ṁ2.6k

2027

52%

chance

ALL

Update 2026-04-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Death of a Justice will count as a qualifying event for YES resolution (does not require a replacement to be confirmed).

Market context

Get

1,000

to start trading!

Sort by:

bought Ṁ4 NO

@strutheo in case of a resignation, does it just need to be announced in 2026, or become effective in 2026? Thanks!

@strutheo is it enough for a justice to leave or die in 2026, or does there need to be a replacement before the end of 2026? Literal reading of your question implies that replacement in 2026 is not needed for a resignation/retirement (as it will satisfy the "retire" part the question), but is needed for all other causes (death, impeachment, etc- to satisfy "be replaced" part of the question) - but I am guessing that is not what you meant?